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Tsinghua Science and Technology  2019, Vol. 24 Issue (06): 706-715    doi: 10.26599/TST.2018.9010092
REGULAR ARTICLES     
Residuals-Based Deep Least Square Support Vector Machine with Redundancy Test Based Model Selection to Predict Time Series
Yanhua Yu*, Jie Li
∙ Yanhua Yu and Jie Li are with the School of Computer, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876, China. E-mail: jli@bupt.edu.cn.
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Abstract  

In this paper, we propose a novel Residuals-Based Deep Least Squares Support Vector Machine (RBD-LSSVM). In the RBD-LSSVM, multiple LSSVMs are sequentially connected. The second LSSVM uses the fitting residuals of the first LSSVM as input time series, and the third LSSVM trains the residuals of the second, and so on. The original time series is the input of the first LSSVM. Additionally, to obtain the best hyper-parameters for the RBD-LSSVM, we propose a model validation method based on redundancy test using Omni-Directional Correlation Function (ODCF). This method is based on the fact when a model is appropriate for a given time series, there should be no information or correlation in the residuals. We propose the use of ODCF as a statistic to detect nonlinear correlation between two random variables. Thus, we can select hyper-parameters without encountering overfitting, which cannot be avoided by only cross validation using the validation set. We conducted experiments on two time series: annual sunspot number series and monthly Total Column Ozone (TCO) series in New Delhi. Analysis of the prediction results and comparisons with recent and past studies demonstrate the promising performance of the proposed RBD-LSSVM approach with redundancy test based model selection method for modeling and predicting nonlinear time series.



Key wordstime series prediction      information redundancy      residuals-based deep Least Squares Support Vector Machine (LSSVM)      Omni-Directional Correlation Function (ODCF)     
Received: 10 January 2018      Published: 15 March 2018
Corresponding Authors: Yanhua Yu   
About author:

Jie Li received the BEng degree from Shenyang University of Aviation and Aerospace in 1999, MEng degree from Sichuan University in 2004, and PhD degree from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications in 2009. He has published more than 10 papers. He is now a lecturer with the School of Computer at Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. His research interests include cloud computing, mobile network, and data mining.

Cite this article:

Yanhua Yu, Jie Li. Residuals-Based Deep Least Square Support Vector Machine with Redundancy Test Based Model Selection to Predict Time Series. Tsinghua Science and Technology, 2019, 24(06): 706-715.

URL:

http://tst.tsinghuajournals.com/10.26599/TST.2018.9010092     OR     http://tst.tsinghuajournals.com/Y2019/V24/I06/706

Fig. 1 RBD-LSSVM with two layers.
Layerσ2CmMSE
1st layer182446
2nd layer1131014
3rd layer1114
4th layer2411–394 00140.3–0.55
Table 1 Hyper-parameter values for the four-layer RBD-LSSVM validated using ODCF test.
Fig. 2 Predicted and target test series of annual sunspot number for years 1956–1979.
MethodNMSE (%)
RBD-LSSVM6.5
Local LSSVM[4]7.8
ODCF-SVM[10]13.5
Neural network[21]15.1
Benchmark[22]15.4
Benchmark[23]35.0
Table 2 Performance comparison for sunspot number series prediction from 1956 to 1979.
Fig. 3 ACF for original monthly TCO in New Delhi.
Fig. 4 ACF for seasonally differenced monthly TCO in New Delhi.
Layerσ2Cm
1st layer3041650149
2nd layer11216
3rd layer13612
4th layer8131–105117
Table 3 Hyper-parameter values for the four-layer RBD-LSSVM validated using ODCF test.
Fig. 5 Target and predicted test series for TCO in New Delhi (48 one-step-ahead predictions).
MethodRMSEPearson correlation coefficientNMSE
RBD-LSSVM7.140.870.2429
Iterative error correction based on direct search in Ref. [7]8.420.800.3810
ϵ?-?S?V?M in Ref. [9]10.30.680.5054
Table 4 Performance comparison for total ozone column in New Delhi.
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